New AI model could predict major quakes months before they happen

New research highlights the potential for predicting major earthquakes months in advance by using machine learning to detect early signs of seismic activity. However, the effectiveness and ethical implications of such predictive technology remain subjects of debate.

Research by a scientist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks suggests that the public could receive several days to months of advance notice before a major earthquake, based on the identification of preceding low-level tectonic activity across large areas. This analysis focused on two significant earthquakes in Alaska and California.

The work was led by research assistant professor Tarsilo Girona of the UAF Geophysical Institute.

Girona, a geophysicist and data scientist, studies precursory activity of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Geologist Kyriaki Drymoni of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich, Germany, is a co-author.

The detection method, based on machine learning, was published on August 28 in Nature Communications.

“Our paper demonstrates that advanced statistical techniques, particularly machine learning, have the potential to identify precursors to large-magnitude earthquakes by analyzing datasets derived from earthquake catalogs,” Girona said.

The authors wrote a computer algorithm to search the data to look for abnormal seismic activity. Algorithms are a set of computer instructions that teach a programme to interpret data, learn from it, and make informed predictions or decisions.

They focused on two major earthquakes: the 2018 magnitude 7.1 Anchorage earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence of magnitudes 6.4 to 7.1.

They found that approximately three months of abnormal low-magnitude regional seismicity had occurred across about 15% to 25% of Southcentral Alaska and Southern California prior to each of the two studied earthquakes.

Their research finds that unrest preceding major earthquakes is mostly captured by seismic activity with a magnitude below 1.5.

The Anchorage earthquake occurred November 30, 2018, at 8:29 am, with an epicenter located approximately 10.5 miles north of the city. It caused extensive damage to some roads and highways, and several buildings sustained damage. (SciTechDaily)

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