India surpasses China as the world’s most populous country

India is poised to become the world’s most populous country this year – surpassing China, which has held the distinction since at least 1950, when the United Nations population records begin. The UN expects that India will overtake China in April, though it may have already reached this milestone since the UN estimates are projections.

The milestone could have major economic and societal implications for both countries — and may eventually influence trade flows and upend the global balance of power. India was home to 1.417 billion people as of last year, compared to China’s 1.426 billion, per UN figures.

But as India’s population continues to grow, China’s population is expected to decline — to 1.313 billion by 2050, per the UN’s most recent “medium variant” projection. For years, India has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, averaging 5.5% growth over the past decade, per Morgan Stanley. The South Asian nation overtook the United Kingdom to become the fifth-largest economy last year. It’s expected to become the third-largest — topping the economies of Japan and Germany by 2028, according to IMF.

A declining and aging population in China will lead to further economic stagnation, some economists say. “China’s demographic decline is the single biggest factor driving down China’s economic growth,” said Robert Blohm, a Toronto-based economist and managing director of the investment firm Keen Resources Asia.

That, combined with India’s growing population and a shift away from China due to geopolitical reasons, may help the South Asian country chip away at China’s dominance as the world’s factory. “A lot of production capacity will be moved to India,” Yi Fuxian, a scientist in obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Axios. “There will be more and more made-in-India goods on the U.S. market,” Yi said. (www.pewresearch.org)