LTTE Prevented Ranil’s Victory in 2005

Wickremesinghe would have won in 2005 by about exactly that much if the North East Voters had not been “disturbed, disrupted or otherwise messed up’’ by Prabhakaran as speculated.

Mahinda Rajapaksa, the then Prime Minister, emerged as the candidate of the Chandrika Bandaranaike’s government that held power for 11 years, with a brief interruption from 2001 to 2004 when the UNP won the Parliamentary Election in 2001, and Ranil Wickremesinghe assuming the role of Prime Minister. However, during this period, the Executive Presidency was under the control of the PA. The UNP administration, albeit briefly, managed to partially revive an economy left in disarray by Kumaratunga’s ineffective policies. President Chandrika’s authoritarian decision to prematurely dissolve Parliament denied the new UNP government the opportunity to fully implement their agenda outlined in the ‘Regaining Sri Lanka’ programme and hindered progress in the country.

The JVP leadership, in collaboration with Kumaratunga, orchestrated the removal of Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister and engineered the defeat of the UNP. Their strategic maneuver aimed at forming a coalition with the PA to secure additional seats in the legislature, positioning themselves as potential kingmakers in future SLFP administrations.

Productive initiatives

The eleven years under CBK’s PA administration were marked by a lack of constructive or productive initiatives, leading to a deteriorating economy with GDP plummeting below zero. The situation worsened across all sectors, making it seemingly impossible for a candidate from such a party to succeed in a Presidential Election. Despite this, Mahinda Rajapaksa remained the most strategic choice available to the SLFP-led PA as its contender.

President Kumaratunga presented statistics of voting patterns and percentages among minority communities to the Central Committee, aiming to elucidate Mahinda Rajapaksa’s electoral prospects to a disinterested SLFP hierarchy. Despite her efforts, not even her closest allies agreed with her analysis. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa abruptly excused himself during Kumaratunga’s presentation, citing prior commitments. Kumaratunga also made personal comments about Rajapaksa after his departure. Her assessment was that Rajapaksa would struggle to secure minority votes, but her remarks failed to convince the Central Committee.

Predicting the outcome of the 2005 Presidential Election was exceptionally challenging due to the closely matched characteristics, clarity of argument, personality, and feasibility of agendas between the main contenders. However, Rajapaksa, as PM, was not entrusted with significant responsibilities by President CBK, who feared that he would become a threat to her authority. Meanwhile, Ranil, elected by the people in 2001 as their PM, was deprived of completing the economic recovery he had successfully initiated from 2001 to early 2004 by her.

President Chandrika and her brother Anura Bandaranaike faced criticism from senior members of the SLFP and their allies for what was perceived as their “negative” statements leading up to the elections. These remarks were deemed harmful to the party that their father initiated and their mother carried forward.

Chandrika Kumaratunga expressed her reservations about certain policies outlined in Mahinda Rajapaksa’s manifesto, Mahinda Chinthana, particularly regarding the unitary state and conditions linked to discussions with the LTTE and Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (PTOM). During a meeting of the SLFP Central Committee on October 30th chaired by CBK, she took the opportunity to present a pessimistic outlook on Rajapaksa’s electoral prospects. Using statistics on the percentages of votes from different minority communities, she attempted to illustrate Rajapaksa’s perceived poor chances of winning the election. Rajapaksa, who was present at the meeting, reportedly excused himself abruptly and walked out, possibly in response to Kumaratunga’s negative assessment. Adding to the speculation surrounding the situation, Kumaratunga was rumored to have held a meeting with the UNP candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe, further complicating the political landscape.

Progressive step

Wickremesinghe’s role in brokering a truce with the LTTE, sponsored by Norway, was seen by many as a progressive step towards resolving the ethnic conflict. One of Wickremesinghe’s notable qualities was his refusal to engage in retaliatory actions, even in the face of significant provocation. This restraint was regarded as a mark of greatness, a trait that few leaders possess.

Mahinda Rajapaksa may not have been characterized by exceptional integrity, intellect, or knowledge, but he demonstrated unwavering loyalty to his leadership and party through thick and thin. His role as a street-fighter organising paada-yathras and demonstrations during the challenging years of the JRJ/Premadasa era contributed significantly to Chandrika Bandaranaike’s resurgence and victory in the 1994 General Election, followed shortly by her success in the Presidential race.

Both Ranil and Mahinda actively sought to secure the support of minority parties during their election campaigns. Rajapaksa made concessions such as rejecting federalism and abandoning the ceasefire with the LTTE to re-establish alliances with parties like the JVP and the Hela Urumaya, which endorsed him. The potential impact of votes from regions such as Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, and Digamadulla on the election outcome cannot be understated. Even a small fraction of votes from Jaffna alone could have significantly influenced Ranil Wickremesinghe’s chances of reaching the crucial 50 percent threshold needed to win outright. However, various factors, including voter intimidation and restrictions on the right to vote, likely affected voter turnout and ultimately the election outcome. This highlights the importance of ensuring that all citizens have equal opportunities to participate in the democratic process.

Ranil Wickremesinghe sought to garner support from ethnic minorities, capitalising on his reputation for adopting a more conciliatory approach to the ethnic issue. He secured endorsements from key minority parties such as the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and the Ceylon Workers’ Congress, which represented the upcountry Tamils. However, the Tamil National Alliance opted to remain neutral in the election.

Economic growth

During Wickremesinghe’s tenure as Prime Minister from 2001 to 2004, the nation experienced some economic growth, largely attributed to his open-market policies. However, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s promise to halt privatisations, which were often controversial, resonated with certain segments of the electorate. Wickremesinghe’s hopes for victory were significantly undermined when Velupillai Prabhakaran, the leader of the LTTE, ordered Tamil voters in the North and East to boycott the polls. This decision resulted in the loss of an estimated 200,000 potential votes for Wickremesinghe. Subsequently, allegations surfaced suggesting that Rajapaksa’s election campaign office had engaged in a deal with the LTTE leadership, exchanging a “bribe” for their cooperation in influencing Tamil voter turnout.

The LTTE did the outlandish thing by asking the Tamil people for a boycott of the vote. We know that when the LTTE ‘asks’ anything, it’s no sweetheart request for some tender loving cooperation. Anyway, as if to prove it wasn’t, the LTTE enforced their request with road barriers, burning tyres and turning-around buses. That’s as if the threat of getting shot at a later date wasn’t enough. Why did the LTTE do this? It appears they wanted the short memories of the international community to register this election in their minds as a Sri Lankan/Sinhala vote for a ‘hardline’ President.

These developments further complicated an already fiercely contested election, highlighting the intricate dynamics of Sri Lankan politics and the various factors at play in determining electoral outcomes.

Sri Lankan voters are not unintelligent; rather, they face a complex and often frustrating political landscape where their choices may seem limited. Moreover, voting provides an opportunity for citizens to express their preferences and contribute to shaping the future direction of their country, however imperfect the choices may be. Ultimately, the act of voting reflects a commitment to civic duty and a desire to have a say in the governance of their nation, even amidst the frustrations and disillusionment with the political process.

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