World growth to fall sharply in 2024 but US recession avoided

World growth has held up well in 2023 driven by a normalisation of consumption in China and a pick-up in US growth, which have outweighed a sharp slowdown in Europe in the wake of last year’s regional energy shock. But with the full impact of recent monetary tightening still to be felt, China’s ongoing property slump and the eurozone economy stagnating, world growth is expected to fall sharply to 2.1% in 2024, Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) report.

Fitch has revised its 2023 world growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.5% in the September GEO, with the US raised by 0.4pp to 2.4% and China by 0.5pp to 5.3%. We have also raised growth in emerging markets excluding China by 0.2pp to 3.6%. Eurozone growth is forecast at 0.5%, little changed from the previous forecast.

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